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How accurate are AI sports predictions? We scored 20 events

Updated| October 22, 2026

We scored 20 sports events. The AI models' top pick won 13 (65%), or 10 of 17 counting named picks only. Every result, the misses, and what we got wrong.

Rachelle leads product and AI at Tomedes, where she runs the experiments that turn internal data into better translation experiences. She writes about what actually happens when you build AI products such as MachineTranslation.com � the numbers, the surprises, and the parts that don't go to plan.

The short answer

Across 20 events with a clear result, the AI models' top pick won 13 (65%). Three of those hits were “other player” or “other driver” picks, so counting named picks only, it is 10 of 17. The sample is small, so treat these numbers as directional, not proof.

Data as of October 12, 2026.

Eye2.AI asks several popular AI models the same question before a big game or event, then shows what they say. People often ask the obvious next question: are they any good? This post answers it with our own numbers, including the parts that do not look good for us.

How we counted

  • Top pick. The option with the highest average win chance across the AI models that answered. It is the tallest bar on each Eye2.AI page.
  • Hit. The top pick was the actual winner. We checked results against public sources.
  • “Other” counts as a pick. On golf and some F1 pages, “other player” or “other driver” is an option. When it was the top pick, we counted it, and we mark those hits with an asterisk.
  • One exclusion. The first game of the Yankees at Rays series listed the wrong teams on its page, so we could not score it.
  • Data window. As of October 12, 2026, we were tracking 71 queries. 21 had a result and 20 could be scored. The first result is from August 23 and the latest from October 11.

Every result

Here is each event we scored. The tiles at the top of the page show the same 20 results at a glance.

Event                                                          Date          AI top pick                                     Actual winner                      Result
Dota 2 The InternationalAug 23Team Spirit 49.8%Team SpiritHit
US Open, women's singlesSep 12Aryna Sabalenka 30.2%Elena RybakinaMiss
Spanish Grand PrixSep 13Max Verstappen 22.0%Andrea Kimi AntonelliMiss
US Open, men's singlesSep 13Carlos Alcaraz 44.4%Alexander ZverevMiss
Man City vs SunderlandSep 20Manchester City win 78.4%Manchester City winHit
NFL Week 2, Colts at ChiefsSep 20Kansas City Chiefs win 64.0%Kansas City Chiefs winHit
UFC 331, Van vs Pantoja 2Sep 20Joshua Van wins 57.0%Joshua Van winsHit
NFL Week 3, Rams at BroncosSep 26Los Angeles Rams win 51.2%Denver Broncos winMiss
Azerbaijan Grand PrixSep 26George Russell 34.6%George RussellHit
Laver CupSep 27Team Europe 58.8%Team EuropeHit
Presidents CupSep 27United States Team 52.4%United States TeamHit
NFL Week 4, Lions at PanthersOct 4Detroit Lions 60.1%Carolina PanthersMiss
Bank of Utah ChampionshipOct 4Other player* 58.6%Other playerHit
NHL, Capitals vs PenguinsOct 7Washington Capitals 49.5%Washington CapitalsHit
MLB ALDS, Yankees vs RaysOct 8Tampa Bay Rays 79.3%Tampa Bay RaysHit
MLB ALDS, White Sox vs GuardiansOct 8Chicago White Sox 70.2%Cleveland GuardiansMiss
UFC Fight Night, Allen vs DuncanOct 10Brendan Allen 55.6%Brendan AllenHit
Baycurrent ClassicOct 11Other player* 60.7%Other playerHit
NFL Week 5, Ravens at FalconsOct 11Atlanta Falcons 56.7%Baltimore RavensMiss
Singapore Grand PrixOct 11Other driver* 38.3%Other driverHit

Source: Eye2.AI prediction review, data as of October 12, 2026. Percentages are the average win chance across the AI models that answered. * The top pick was “other player” or “other driver”. Download the data (CSV).

What stood out

A high-confidence pick was not more likely to be right

Picks of 60% or higher were right 4 of 6 times. Picks below 60% were right 9 of 14 times. That is a small difference on small numbers, so we should not read a bigger percentage as a safer prediction.

Three hits came from “other”

The Bank of Utah Championship, the Baycurrent Classic and the Singapore Grand Prix were won by players or drivers outside our contender list. “Other” was the top pick each time, so it counted as a hit. Without them the record is 10 of 17, or 59%. We show both numbers because both are true.

Some sports were harder, but the groups are tiny

NFL games were the hardest, with the top pick winning 1 of 4. UFC went 2 of 2. Golf also went 2 of 2, though both were “other” picks. With groups this small, one game changes the picture, so we read this as a place to look, not a conclusion.

The misses

Seven events went against the top pick. Three stand out.

The most confident miss was the White Sox against the Guardians. The top pick had Chicago at 70.2%. Cleveland won, after being rated at 29.8%.

The one where every AI model agreed and was wrong was the Lions at the Panthers. All six picked Detroit, the average was 60.1%, and Carolina won after being rated at 36.4%.

The closest was the Spanish Grand Prix. Max Verstappen was the top pick at 22.0%, and Andrea Kimi Antonelli, who won, was at 21.6%. A 0.4 point gap in a race with many drivers is close to a coin toss.

How each AI did

We also looked at how often each AI’s own top option won. The counts are not equal, because not every AI answered every question, and ties count as half a hit. Read it as a rough picture, not a ranking.

AI                          Events       Hits       Hit rate         Note
Grok AI2013
65%
ChatGPT2012.5
62%
Gemini2012
60%
Claude199
47%Declined the Laver Cup question
Smart96
67%Answered only 9 events
Amazon Nova195.5
29%Gave 10 to 15% to a tie or postponement on NFL games

Source: Eye2.AI prediction review, data as of October 12, 2026. “Events” is how many events that AI answered. Half hits are ties.

Some answers were extreme. Claude gave 100% to one golfer who did not win, and Claude and Grok both gave 100% to Team Spirit at The International, who did. A 100% answer leaves no room for being wrong, which is why we do not treat any single AI’s number as the answer.

What we got wrong

Scoring the AI models also meant checking our own work, and we found problems on our side. Here is what we found and what we are changing.

Priority  What we foundWhat it looked likeWhat we are changing
HighThe AI models copied our example numbers.Identical answers appeared on UFC 331 (55/40/2/3), the Spanish GP and the Azerbaijan GP. Copied numbers are not predictions.Take the numbers out of the example in our prompt.
HighOne page showed the wrong matchup.The first ALDS game page listed the White Sox and Guardians for a Yankees at Rays game, so the title and the chart did not match.Check the first prompt's output against the page heading before the page goes live.
HighThe contender list missed some winners.Winners such as Verstappen and golf field winners fell outside the list, which gave “other” too much weight.Use a longer contender list for golf and F1.
HighTest entries and a cut-off question were still in the system.Two test rows and one truncated Spanish GP question needed cleaning up, and two US Open pages used an older template.Delete the test rows, restore the full question, and move the US Open pages to the newer template.
MediumSome AI answers were extreme or missing.Claude declined the Laver Cup question and left out “Other driver” on the Azerbaijan GP. Amazon Nova gave 10 to 15% to a tie or postponement on NFL games. A few answers were 0% or 100%.Under review. We will flag answers that look extreme before they reach the average.

Source: Eye2.AI prediction review, data as of October 12, 2026. Priorities are the review’s own.

Limits of this review

  • Small sample. Twenty events over about seven weeks, spread across many sports. Groups of two to four events cannot show a pattern.
  • A win chance is not a promise. A 60% pick should lose about four times in ten, and some of these misses are exactly that.
  • We scored the prediction shown on each Eye2.AI page and checked results against public sources. Nobody outside Eye2.AI has audited the review.
  • The totals depend on how we count. Treating “other” as a pick helps the record, so we show both versions.
  • This is not betting advice.

FAQs

1. How accurate are AI sports predictions?
In our review of 20 events with a clear result, the AI models' top pick won 13, or 65%. Counting only named picks, it was 10 of 17. That is better than a coin flip but far from reliable, and the sample is too small to prove a pattern.

2. Does a higher AI confidence mean a better prediction?
Not in our data. Top picks of 60% or higher won 4 of 6, and picks below 60% won 9 of 14. The groups are small, so the safe reading is that confidence told us very little about whether the AI models were right.

3. Which AI model predicted best?
By how often each AI's own top option won, Grok led with 13 of 20, then ChatGPT with 12.5 of 20 and Gemini with 12 of 20. The counts differ between models, ties count as half, and the groups are small, so we do not call it a ranking.

4. Why were all six AI models wrong on Lions at Panthers?
All six backed Detroit, with an average of 60.1%, and Carolina won. We cannot say why from this data. It is a reminder that AI models can agree with each other and still be wrong, so agreement is not the same as accuracy.

5. How does Eye2.AI count a correct prediction?
We take the option with the highest average win chance across the AI models that answered, called the top pick. If that option won the event, it is a hit. When “other player” or “other driver” was the top pick and won, we count it and mark it.

6. Is this betting advice?
No. Eye2.AI shows what popular AI models predict for games and events. These numbers describe how those predictions did in the past, on a small sample. They are not a recommendation to bet, and you should not rely on them for money decisions.

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How Accurate Are AI Sports Predictions? 13 of 20 | Eye2.AI