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Tue 10 Nov 2026In 14 days

How many House seats will Democrats win in the 2026 midterms? – As Voted by Top AI Models

Last Updated | October 27, 2026
2–
Most likely to win

230 – 244

14 points ahead of 245 – 259 (22%).

37%
win chance

Win chance, as voted by top AI models

27 Oct 2026
0
10
20
30
40
50
36.7%
22.3%
20.2%
9.3%
8.8%
4.3%
230 – 244avg
245 – 259avg
215 – 229avg
Under 215avg
260 – 274avg
275 or moreavg
Each bar is the average win chance across all 6 AIs. Hover a bar for the per-AI breakdown.

Poll of polls:

Win chance, as voted by top AI models

Show AIs
0 of 3
Big bar = average of all 6 · small bars = your picks
27 Oct 2026
230 – 24428 pt range—36.7%avg
245 – 25914 pt range—22.3%avg
215 – 22914 pt range—20.2%avg
Under 21514 pt range—9.3%avg
260 – 2749 pt range—8.8%avg
275 or more14 pt range—4.3%avg
The average uses all 6 AIs, even ones you haven't picked. Each AI's numbers add up to 100%.

Trend:

Win chance, as voted by top AI models

27 Oct 2026
0102030405037222099427 Oct
230 – 24436.7%245 – 25922.3%215 – 22920.2%Under 2159.3%260 – 2748.8%275 or more4.3%
Each line shows a candidate's average win chance over time. The dashed line marks the date you've picked.
amazon_novaAmazon Nova
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Under 215 10%
215 – 229 20%
230 – 244 30%
245 – 259 20%
260 – 274 15%
275 or more 15%

mercuryMercury
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Under 215 15%
215 – 229 25%
230 – 244 30%
245 – 259 20%
260 – 274 8%
275 or more 2%

geminiGemini
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Under 215 2%
215 – 229 13%
230 – 244 55%
245 – 259 22%
260 – 274 6%
275 or more 2%

deepseekDeepSeek
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Under 215 16%
215 – 229 26%
230 – 244 27%
245 – 259 18%
260 – 274 9%
275 or more 4%

claudeClaude
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Under 215 2%
215 – 229 12%
230 – 244 45%
245 – 259 32%
260 – 274 8%
275 or more 1%

chat_gptChatGPT
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Under 215 11%
215 – 229 25%
230 – 244 33%
245 – 259 22%
260 – 274 7%
275 or more 2%

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