Tue 10 Nov 2026In 14 days

How many times will Elon Musk post on X from Nov. 3 to Nov. 10? – As Voted by Top AI Models

Last Updated | October 27, 2026

2–

Most likely to win

280 – 319

4 points ahead of 320 – 359 (22%).

25%

win chance

Win chance, as voted by top AI models

27 Oct 2026

25.0%

21.5%

16.5%

15.8%

12.8%

8.5%

280 – 319avg

320 – 359avg

240 – 279avg

Under 240avg

360 – 399avg

400 or moreavg

Each bar is the average win chance across all 4 AIs. Hover a bar for the per-AI breakdown.

Poll of polls:

Win chance, as voted by top AI models

Show AIs

0 of 3

Big bar = average of all 4 · small bars = your picks

27 Oct 2026

280 – 31917 pt range—25.0%avg

320 – 35916 pt range—21.5%avg

240 – 27914 pt range—16.5%avg

Under 24038 pt range—15.8%avg

360 – 39918 pt range—12.8%avg

400 or more16 pt range—8.5%avg

The average uses all 4 AIs, even ones you haven't picked. Each AI's numbers add up to 100%.

Trend:

Win chance, as voted by top AI models

27 Oct 2026

280 – 31925.0%320 – 35921.5%240 – 27916.5%Under 24015.8%360 – 39912.8%400 or more8.5%

Each line shows a candidate's average win chance over time. The dashed line marks the date you've picked.

Mercury

["name": "Under 240", "percentage": 5}, {"name": "240–279", "percentage": 10}, {"name": "280–319", "percentage": 25}, {"name": "320–359", "percentage": 35}, {"name": "360–399", "percentage": 15}, {"name": "400 or more", "percentage": 10}]

Gemini

Under 240 10%
240 – 279 15%
280 – 319 35%
320 – 359 25%
360 – 399 10%
400 or more 5%

DeepSeek

Under 240 4%
240 – 279 10%
280 – 319 20%
320 – 359 26%
360 – 399 22%
400 or more 18%

Claude

Under 240 42%
240 – 279 24%
280 – 319 18%
320 – 359 10%
360 – 399 4%
400 or more 2%

ChatGPT

Under 240 7%
240 – 279 17%
280 – 319 27%
320 – 359 25%
360 – 399 15%
400 or more 9%

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